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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd