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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance regarding Ukraine. Following making statements of "serious repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin continued hindering truce negotiations, he eventually imposed considerable sanctions on Russia's primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by US and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative effectively compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a damaged region of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic governance that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in place the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a decade of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that represent a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv if he eventually choose to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate additional conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, the proposal places no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every radical doctrine and actions must be rejected and forbidden." As if to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump sets no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we trust Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the proposal promises a "decisive unified armed reaction" if Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to concerning. The plan would not only block the nation Nato membership but also preclude member states from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "major, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against additional hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not