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Entering the world’s most-visited museum in the middle of the day, grabbing eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and subsequent movie adaptations.

Specialists who observe trends in global cultural theft, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a string of quick-hit thefts centered more on the material value of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a pattern that has emerged over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are breaking into a world-famous museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because nowadays a high-end boutique is better protected.”

A series of violent jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have beefed up their security in recent years, with armed guards on their locations and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the inherent reason of being public-facing institutions in historic buildings, and partly the current economic climate in many western countries.

“Since Covid, authorities across the globe have cut back on law enforcement and the arts funding,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the objects – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once owned by a royal that the robbers left by the street on their way out – has inevitably been compared with the historical theft of the famous painting from the same museum, carried out by the worker the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent burglary of jewellery from a German institution worth over €113m, the taking of a multi-million pound valuable object from Blenheim Palace the that year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of thefts of sports memorabilia from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” explained Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the thieves would struggle to find a buyer. “There’s no way to trade something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the cultural authorities has published photos of the items. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see paperwork confirming legal possession before touching such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, museums were often hesitant to announce publicly about the loss of famous works of art and would remain quiet out of embarrassment. Now, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the keeping and selling of stolen art is risky business for any criminal.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a scheme to conceal it, maybe by passing it around dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the theft had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You can't display it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Modifying taken items by melting down or reshaping does lower the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because modern methods give gems a bigger and lighter appearance, and older-style stones would either attract notice or barter the price down for a concealment.

Crucially, however, melting down or reshaping removes the proof of the crime. “I suspect that the robbers will try to take the items to places with gem knowledge like a country, India or even as nearby as a city, and find someone to remove the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the institution, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be published next month pointing out “considerable” and “ongoing” delays in updating systems and observing that surveillance were missing in many rooms. But security experts say showing precious items in older structures with a steady stream of guests comes with risks that are not possible to remove entirely.

“Older structures are much harder to protect,” said an art crime professor. “Many of them have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for thieves to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for buildings should be designed “as a stronghold”, noted Peter Stürmann. “There should be multiple levels to repel attackers.”

Modern buildings are equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or integrated vibration sensors that alert about a smashed window in immediately, but old museums may be hesitant to alter their exteriors. Detection devices can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours local time, was common of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when security change their shifts and before the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new devices that can raise the alarm more rapidly and effectively, but it has also provided thieves new tools with which to bypass security measures. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a window with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in France about the 232-year-old structure had mostly focused on crowd control in the past decade, and not as much on protection.

The museum has an in-house team of about 50 full-time firefighters, but their purpose is mainly to safeguard the artworks from blazes and flooding. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to government support and funding, and at present the nation simply has no money.”